This week in 1997, Tom Cruise, Renée Zellweger, and Cuba Gooding Jr. hit theaters with the iconic movie Jerry Maguire, a film about cutthroat sports agents and true love. To say that the film entered popular culture is an understatement. Mostly, it just oozed into the very pores of American society. You couldn’t go anywhere (you still can’t) without hearing the movie’s four main catchphrases:
• “Show me the money!”
• “You had me at hello”
• “You complete me”
• “Help me help you”
If you haven’t heard one of these (or all four), you are not a sports fan or have never been in love. Probably both (we feel bad for you). The catchphrases are so embedded in American culture that Kenny Chesney made a cheesy country song called “You Had Me At Hello” and the Simpsons also parodied the phrase with Mel Gibson as a guest. Bruce Springsteen also got involved, and when The Boss gets involved, it’s going to be part of Americana.
This month’s indicators are a lot like Jerry Maguire—a big heart, messy middle, and a contract you actually need to read. That’s because we’re bringing you October and November’s together to sync with the BLS, which is now publishing again after the shutdown like they are in a contract year.
What’s the read? Prediction markets are squinting through fog, especially with the recent events involving the Fed Chairman being investigated by the Justic Department. Locally, it’s basically the same big-picture story as the last few months; wages and gross sales are holding up to the pressure of interest rates, tariffs, immigration raids, and geopolitics. But housing continues to feel pressure, and there is a softening in jobs.
Forgive us for pointing out the obvious, but it’s a big, chaotic world out there. The only thing that seems to stress-test well (over the centuries) is gold and silver. So, if you have precious metals under your pillow (or in a vault), congratulations—you’re doing just fine. You’ve been shown the money in yellow and silver bars.
It would be silly for us to try and predict the future under normal circumstances. But nothing right now is normal. The best we can do as we start the year is to say, no matter what, Rapid City, we’ll be okay. We’ll help each other help each other through it all.
And for the last time—stay safe and God-speed,
Tom
