This week in 2001, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring hit theaters and introduced audiences to Mr. Frodo and his impossible quest to destroy evil jewelry. The film gave me a socially acceptable excuse to say “my precious” in a creepy voice to my dog and gave everyone else one of cinema’s freakiest buddy pictures—assuming your definition of a buddy picture includes walking thousands of miles with no GPS and playing dine-and-dash with orcs and monsters.
We’re not exactly talking about Butch and Sundance here, but our fellowship of wizards, dwarves, elves, and hobbits proved equally capable of getting the job done. They worked their way across Middle-earth, avoiding trolls, fighting temptation, and handling an existential crisis (the destruction of reality—and let me tell you, the struggle is real, bro) because the actual authorities (kings, stewards, basically anyone with a job title) had completely checked out. It’s an epic tale of making do with what you have when the government just shrugs its shoulders.
This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that. Here we are at the end of 2025, and we’re living in our own Fellowship moment—except instead of destroying an evil ring, we’re trying to figure out basic economic data because the federal government stopped putting out data, just recently began putting out data again, and further, people really aren’t sure they can even trust the data because of the effects of the government shutdown itself. Yes, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is operational again, the Census Bureau is back in the office, but they’re just getting around to updating September’s numbers now.
You’re probably thinking, “Wait, it’s almost New Year’s—this doesn’t help me.” And you’re right. So, while we present September’s revised numbers for your perusal, let’s also be honest about it: the Council of Elrond could have produced them, and they wouldn’t have been particularly helpful. It’s like shutting down all intelligence gathering on Lord Sauron for a few months and hoping everything works out for the best. Spoiler alert: that's not a great strategy.
What we do know for certain, we get through private sources like ADP's payroll figures and MIT’s Billion Prices Project. And what does our fellowship of alternative data tell us about the economy? According to ADP’s National Employment Report, released in early December, private-sector employment lost 32,000 jobs in November. Read that again: negative 32,000 jobs. ADP’s chief economist notes that “hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.” The report shows particular weakness in manufacturing, professional services, and information sectors, with the slowdown “broad-based but led by a pullback among small businesses.”
MIT's Billion Prices Project, which scrapes online prices daily rather than waiting for government surveys, indicates inflation is running slightly higher than the last official reading, tracking closer to 3.2% rather than the 3.0% we last saw before the shutdown. It's not perfect data, but it's better than wandering blindly into Mordor. Incidentally, the Feds are suggesting it’s more like 2.7%, which is still higher than the target of 2%, but lower than expected.
With respect to the local markets, what we know for certain is that sales are still robust, so people are still spending money in the Black Hills. But the numbers continue to show a slight softening in both the commercial and residential real estate markets. Properties are on the market longer and listings are up, and that’s resulting in mixed prices, depending on your zip code. To make matters worse, the Feds recent interest-rate cut only made mortgage rates go up (more on that another time). So, if you are looking for a house in the Shire, here’s hoping you lock in a good interest rate before Xmas.
Stay safe and God-speed,
Tom
