This month in 2012, Australian-Belgian musician Gotye unleashed upon an unsuspecting world what would become the year's most unavoidable (and annoying) earworm: "Somebody That I Used to Know." The song's distinctive xylophone riff and moody vocals made it utterly impossible to escape, reaching #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 on April 28, 2012, where it stayed for a mind-numbing eight weeks.
The song's music video, which featured Gotye and Irish singer Kimbra being painted into a wall, has now been viewed over 2 billion times, approximately 1.9 billion of which are obviously Irish hipsters in skinny jeans so tight they can’t walk to the record store to buy a real artist like Hozier. Don’t get me wrong. Gotye will live forever as a one-hit wonder. But I’ll even take Aqua’s “Barbie Girl” over Gotye a hundred times over.
This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that—hipster vibes, but a bit strange in the year 2025 and facing a tariff war. Consider first, the paradoxical employment numbers: average weekly wages have climbed to an all-time high of $1,061 (up 4.35% year-over-year), nonfarm employment has increased to 74,000 (a 2.21% gain), and education and health services employment continues its impressive growth at 5.43%. Labor force participation has improved to 65.24%. These are the catchy hooks of our economy—the chorus we can’t help but sing.
But then comes the moody bridge section of our economic song: gross sales have dropped from $929 million last month to $730 million, representing a 2.0% year-over-year decline. New housing unit permits have plummeted from 23 to just 11. Primary sector jobs (think manufacturing) remain a little stagnant with the same 0.69% decline we saw last month.
The real estate market is exhibiting its own peculiar behavior. Days-on-market for properties have dropped dramatically from 77 days to just 56, a 7.98% improvement over last year. Yet at the same time, housing permits are down dramatically. It's as if the real estate market got painted into a corner like Gotye in that music video—visible but a bit immobilized. Meanwhile, building valuation jumped from $14.29 million to $25.7 million, suggesting fewer but larger construction projects.
This economic cognitive dissonance is playing out against the backdrop of President Trump's recently imposed tariffs. With duties ranging from 10% on most trading partners to a staggering 125% on Chinese imports (bringing the total to a jaw-dropping 145%), we're witnessing an unprecedented trade conflict, the likes of which we’ve not seen in generations. China has responded in turn with their own 125% tariffs on American goods, creating what economists might call "The Trade War That We Used To Know," where once-predictable international commerce patterns have been dramatically altered.
How will this affect Rapid City? It’s still too early to tell. The tariff story seems to change by the day. And as we have seen throughout its history, Rapid City has shown remarkable resilience. Our diverse economic base—military, health care, tourism, construction—provides a unique strength, allowing for adaptation in the face of challenges that might overwhelm more specialized and less-diversified economies.
Like a song that initially seems simple but reveals more complexity with each listen, Rapid City continues to be an economy in transition, navigating between competing growth models while adjusting to new trade realities. The solid foundation of employment growth and rising wages hints at underlying strength, while the mixed signals in sales and construction point to necessary adjustments rather than a pure decline or recession just yet.
Rapid City is no one-hit wonder.
Stay safe and God-speed,
Tom
