Around this time each year, you can be sure of three things: fruitcake, one of your co-workers will make a fool out of themselves at your holiday work party, and Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas” will re-enter the charts in a big way. 

And it’s not even close. Nat King Cole? Wham? Brenda Lee? Bing Crosby? No way. Billboard ranked “All I Want for Christmas” as the number one Christmas song of all time. Released in 1994, the song has dominated the holiday charts for three decades, hitting number one from 2019 through 2024 (yes, this year).

Sleighbells? A triangle? A piano and Mariah Carey tricked out in harmony and Santa gear? Check. Check. And Check. Although the song borrows from numerous decades and has 15 distinct chord progressions, it isn’t too complicated. It’s simply a cheesy three-minute anthem to co-dependent holiday romance and reindeers dancing on rooftops.  And it’s one heck of an earworm.

This month’s economic indicators are a bit like that—ready for the holiday season and brimming with a little Jack Frost spirit. The big four economic indicators—wages, job growth, unemployment, and consumer spending—continue to bring good tidings. All four are at historic highs (or in the case of unemployment, all-time lows). And some of the secondary indicators—airport passengers, hotel occupancy, building valuation, and housing starts—they’re all up as well. So things are festive, right? Bring out the egg nogg, right?

For now, yes. But with all the talk of an overheated stock market and tariffs and the Walmart Index and government debt, there’s still pessimism in the air. In other words, it’s another typical month for economists trying to predict what the heck is going to happen in 2025.

Our advice?  Enjoy the holidays with the ones you love. The economy will still be here when you get back.

Stay safe and God-speed,

Tom