This week in 1989, Whitesnake frontman David Coverdale married actress and rock 'n' roll vixen Tawny Kitaen. Kitaen was a relatively unknown actress before appearing as a redhead seductress in Whitesnake's super hit video "Here I Go Again."

It's best to separate the video from the song, if that's even possible. The song was famous for the lyric, "Like a drifter, I was born to walk alone." Coverdale originally wrote the tune with the word "hobo" in the line, but after performing both versions, he wisely went back to "drifter." And the rest is history. The song went to #1 after its release in 1987.

Now, about the video. It's one of the most famous of all time. It probably put MTV on the map. Not the original map. I'm not talking about "Video Killed the Radio Star." I'm talking about THE map. The one that etches itself in the memories of middle-aged parents everywhere. In the video, Kitaen spends four minutes dancing in a nightie on the top of two cars between takes of the band performing onstage—synthesizers, guitars, and hair bigger than a Jack Nicholson monologue. Kitaen is part gazelle, part ballerina, part siren, and all hair metal goddess.

Like most rock videos of the 1980s, the song is long on sultry and short on meaning; that is, unless you think the lyrics, "I don't know where I'm goin', but I sure know where I've been," is ironically philosophical.

This month's economic indicators are a bit like that. A bit ironic. A bit philosophical. Notice we've changed a few things around. First, we've added labor force participation, which is slightly different than unemployment, but telling, nonetheless.

Second, we've separated the housing data into the three main zip codes of the area, which gives a better sense of where housing is most expensive and where it's most affordable (relatively speaking, of course). Finally, we're tracking new housing starts to see how the market responds to demand.

What's clear this month is what's been clear to everyone who's been following these indicators over the last quarter: macro-economic conditions are going to have ramifications in the Black Hills in 2022.

We know inflation is absolutely real.

We know the Fed will do at least four rate hikes, and likely more.

Moreover, the 2-year treasury continues to rise.

And mortgage rates are over 4% for the first time since 2019.

This all suggests a tightening financial market, a drop in housing costs, and uncertainty ahead. There's even the nightmare scenario (although unlikely) in which inflation is still above 5% despite a wave of rate hikes. If that happens, things could get ugly in 2023.

We don't mean to be alarmist, simply aware. We have a responsibility to our investors to talk about risk along with possibilities. But right now, Rapid City's economy is still humming along, still teasingly close to $1 billion a month in gross sales. Let's hope the Fed needs only raise rates once or twice, and the market prices respond quickly with lower inflation by year's end.

If so, we can look back and say we both knew where we were going, and we knew where we had been.

Stay safe and God-Speed,

Tom Johnson,
Elevate Rapid City President & CEO