This week in 1984, the pop duo Wham (the original boy band if you ask me) released what would become possibly the most played Christmas song of all time: "Last Christmas." As a child of the '80s, of course, I'm a bit biased. Others might rightly make a case for John Lennon's "Happy Xmas" (about the Vietnam War), Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas is You" (a love song), or "Do They Know It's Christmas," by Band Aid, which helped raise money for the famine in Ethiopia. You might even throw out Gordon Lightfoot's "Song for a Winter's Night," which was remade ten times better by Sarah McLachlan in 1996.

But "Last Christmas"—I don't know. It just grabs you and gets to you. Maybe it's the ultra-thick cheesy video. Perhaps it's George Michael's killer wavy and Richard-Marx induced half-mullet, half-Farrah Fawcett hair. Or maybe it's just the sweet drumbeat (set at 107 beats per minute) that gives the song a slight sleigh ride quality.

The song was written in an hour by George Michael in his childhood bedroom. What I find more impressive, however, was that Michael played every instrument in the original recorded track. The song is about a spurned lover who decides to give his heart to someone else this holiday season. So really, the song is about as uncomplicated as it gets. And maybe that's its secret—the secret to life, really. Don't overcomplicate things.

This month's economic indicators are a bit like that—uncomplicated and straightforward.

Rapid City continues to see almost historic prosperity with unemployment, wages, and consumer spending. At the same time, we are facing the same headwinds as other fast-growing communities: labor shortages and rising home costs. We've been saying this for months and months, but finally, there is the data to back it up. The labor shortage isn't primarily driven by lazy millennials sitting on their couches and buying cryptocurrency. It's due to two major trends returning as we emerge from COVID-19. First, baby boomers are not returning to the workforce as fast as they usually would. And second, working-mothers are having to decide between childcare and returning to work.

These two trends make the look forward to 2022 suddenly more complicated. The country is still facing the specter of continued inflation and the reality of interest rates going higher in the 2nd quarter of next year. At the same time, we could see continued labor shortages if the new COVID-variant Omicron proves as nasty as the first wave (so far, it's not looking that way, but we still don't know). The magic trick the Federal Reserve will attempt is to thread the needle with just enough of an interest rate hike to temper inflation, reverse insane costs of housing, and encourage boomers to return to work instead of using their home equity for living expenses. If the Fed overshoots, the stock market crashes, people start putting their money into treasuries, folks stop spending, and the housing market slows significantly. And if we get to that point, last Christmas will be a nice memory.

However, we remain optimistic and bullish about the area's economic future. The tide has turned, and Rapid City is no longer America's best-kept secret. It might not seem like a lot, but when you look at the numbers, around eight people are moving to the Black Hills each day. And no matter what happens with the economic data, we don't see that changing.

Stay safe this holiday season, and God-speed,

Tom Johnson,
Elevate Rapid City President and CEO