Joan Jett rocked the house per usual with a set that featured “Do You Wanna Touch Me,” her cover of the old sixties hit “Crimson and Clover,” and her absolutely monster song “I Love Rock ‘n’ Roll.” We’ll put another dime in that jukebox any day of the week.

 

But the best came last when The Police hit the stage that night. About halfway into their set, they paused and then punched out one of the greatest songs of all time: “Every Breath You Take.” With one of the most recognizable guitar riffs in history, the song is estimated to have produced one-third of Sting’s lifetime income and, according to BMI, it’s the most played song in radio history.

 

Sting wrote the song in a half hour and it’s about a jealous lover who starts to get really possessive and surveil their ex. What, did you think the lyrics “every breath you take, every move you make, I’ll be watching you” was a good thing? Well, you’re not the only one because the song still gets played at a lot of weddings and first dates, which we find a bit confusing, but to each their own.

 

This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that, which is to say, a bit confusing. Wages are still in a good place ($877/week) and total employment increased, but the unemployment rate actually went up from a month ago (3.0% to 3.4%). We had expected that number to go down or remain steady (like it did nationally). Also a bit confusing is the housing market, which continues to rise ($384,900 median list price) while the stock of homes rose by 33. With a bit more supply, we would have expected prices to have dropped just a bit as well. However, we continue to face the uncertain headwinds of inflation (even Krispy Kreme is raising prices now) and although Rapid City went over $836 million in gross sales in one month, along with increased boardings and a health occupancy rate, our ag neighbors to the north, south, and east are experiencing drought conditions yet again.

 

And the five billion-pound gorilla in the room: the Feds are now signaling (which we have been saying they would) that it’s time to start tapering asset purchases, which is code for, hey, at some point in the next six months, expect us to raise interest rates. This should create a slowdown in the housing market, but in Rapid City and with the B-21 coming, that simply may not happen.

 

This brings us to the new Delta variant of COVID-19. The current tourist season aside, if this thing really spreads like wildfire and people start staying home again, all bets are off. You’re going to see some downright whacky stuff with GDP (which decreased last year by 3.5%, the biggest decrease since 1946). The American public has little interest in another lockdown and the economic consequences of what would happen if we did. It’s no surprise that the government is recommending a third booster shot beginning in September. They know what happens if things don’t look to be relatively stable and normal. And the Feds don’t exactly have a ton of additional tools in their arsenal at this point.

 

The good news is that we’ll be monitoring the entire situation for you. We’ll be watching them and every breath they take on your behalf.